Risk Assessment in Indian Construction Projects Using Modified Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract

Construction projects are initiated in dynamic environment which creates circumstances of high uncertainty and risks due to accumulation of many interrelated parameters. So, the need for establishing a systematic risk assessment for construction projects has increased more than ever before with the additional fact that the construction projects are becoming increasingly complex and dynamic. The aim of this paper is to provide a risk assessment methodology that provides a decision support tool, directed for the commercial construction projects. By the study of the risk registers of commercial construction projects, key risk factors category and their attributes which affects the project are identified based on the project objectives. The objective of this study is to perform risk assessment considering the project objectives and propose a risk index for the attributes which are identified, and rank them to prioritize the risk factors. The commonly identified factors from risk registers of various projects are subjected to survey and collected from project managers of an organization through mail or through personnel meeting. The survey questionnaire is designed to derive the relative importance of factors one over other by pair-wise comparison. By assigning a scale of values to rate the importance and by converting those to triangular fuzzy numbers, the fuzzified values are obtained. Those fuzzy numbers are aggregated, defuzzified and applied into analytic hierarchy process to obtain the priority vectors, by which ranking for the attributes is done.
Keywords: Risk assessment,commercial construction projects, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, risk index