The climate change analysis on water resources over western Ghat by deficit calculation method

Authors

  • Sachin Malhari Bhere Government College of Engineering, Aurangabad
  • G.K. Patil

Keywords:

Climate change, statistical Modeling, Water resources, western Ghat, Rainfall Deficiency, Trend analysis

Abstract

The objective of this work is to study the extreme hydrological events and climate change impact on water resources over western Ghat. The western ghat is spread over the area 140 thousand square kilometers and 2600 meter of average elevation. The 1600 Km long western ghat is biodiversity hotspot and home of different species it also forms the catchment which drains over one-third of India. To analyze the extreme hydrological events, the climate data of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) Pune from the year 1969 to 2005 is used. The annual mean rainfall is observed to be 2978 mm. The seasonal variation over western ghat for pre-monsoon and post-monsoon is about 159 mm and 214 mm respectively. Trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test observed the Sen's slope value of -9.045 mm/year for annual rainfall. The rainfall deficiency is calculated by taking the difference of monthly values to the 36 years monthly average and the increasing trend is observed. The deficiency index is also formed by dividing the rainfall deficiency by its standard deviation. The temperature data is also analyzed by calculating the variation from its monthly average and standard deviation. The Index is then compared to the observed gauge discharge of various west-flowing rivers. The Impact of Climate change on water resources over western ghat is calculated by the change in discharge over 36 years of west-flowing rivers. The variability in the discharge is also calculated from its monthly Mean discharge and standard deviation. The correlation coefficient of climate variability and discharge variability is about 0.578. The statistical downscaling model can be used to project the climatic variability for different IPCC criteria and the change in discharge over western ghat can be simulated using SWAT and other GIS-based software. The change of rainfall and temperature from its mean over the 36 years represent the change in climate scenario over the western ghat and dependencies for water resources.

Author Biography

Sachin Malhari Bhere, Government College of Engineering, Aurangabad

Department of Civil Engineering

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Published

2020-03-04

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 1 (2020)

Section

Research Article

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