Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Innovative Risk Aperture Manipulation Model for Risk Management in Mega Project Construction

Md Mizanur Rahman

Abstract


The complexities associated with the technical, managerial and financial interventions in mega project implementation accommodates greater risks, encapsulating the complete project period from inception to closure. Consideration of risks in mega project scope is of paramount importance as it delineates either threat or opportunity in the guise of uncertainty at each and every phase of the project. The absence of innovative and rigorous risk management structure imparts a perplexing scenario in risky operations for mega project constructions, disrupting the opportunity of local contractors to derive financial, technical and managerial benefits from such endeavors. In this paper, a risk aperture manipulation (RAM) model is constituted to provide an innovative and suitable risk management framework for mega project constructions such as transportation infrastructure development. Formal approaches to risk management incorporating innovative RAM model can be institutionalized to ameliorate the present deter situation faced by conceiving mega project approaches, replete with risks. The RAM model delineates a risk assessment methodology, consisting of six multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches, deriving from the weightage analysis of the twenty risk factors under six main categories of mega project risks through fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). The model is validated through the proposed risk assessment procedure incorporating information of ten esteemed local contractors of Bangladesh. The innovative RAM model for mega project construction outlined in this research approach can accommodate necessary interventions for different projects for present and future mega constructions.


Full Text:

PDF

References


Chen Z, Khumpaisal S. An Analytic Network Process for Risks Assessment in Commercial Real Estate Development. Journal of Property Investment and Finance. 2009; 27(3): 238–258p.

Chen Z, Li H, Hong R, et al. Total Environmental Risk Assessment for International Hub Airport Projects. Int J Proj Manage. 2011; 29(7): 856–866p.

Sterman J.D. System Dynamics Modeling for Project Management. 1992. Available at: http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/ (Retrieved on, 20 Mar 2014).

Gray C, E. Larson. Project Management: The Managerial Process. 3rd Edn. McGraw-Hill. 2006.

Touran A, Bolster P J, Thayer S. W. Risk Assessment in fixed Guideway Transit System Construction. Federal Transit Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C. 1994.

Molenaar K.R. Programmatic Cost Risk Analysis for Highway Mega Projects.

J Constr Eng M. 2005; 131(3): 343–353p.

Ana I Irimia-Diéguez, Alvaro Sanchez-Cazorla, Rafaela Alfalla-Luque. Risk Management in Megaprojects. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences. 2014; 119: 407–416p. http://dx.doi.org/10. 1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.046.

Amir Reza, Karimi Azari, Neda Mousavi, et al. Risk Assessment Model Selection in Construction Industry. 2011; 38: 9105–9111p. DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2010.12.110.

Ehsan N, Alam M, Mirza E, et al. Risk Management in construction industry. Available at: http://58.205.208.126/meeting/UploadPapers/1282726331593.pdf. Accessed: 15th Jul 2014.

David Hillson. Managing Risk in Projects. Chapter-2. Available at: http://www. gowerpublishing.com/pdf/SamplePages/Managing_Risk_in_Projects_Ch2.pdf. Accessed: 16th Jul 2014.

Haitham H Al-Shibly, Basem M Louzi, Mohammad A. Hiassat. The Impact of Risk Management on Construction Projects Success from the Employees Perspective. Interdisciplinary Journal of Contemporary Research in Business. Aug 2013; 5(4). Available at:http://journal-archieves35.webs.com/12-43.pdf. Accessed: 17th Jul 2014.

Patrick XW Zou, Guomin Zhang, Jia-Yuan Wang. Identifying Key Risks in Construction Projects: Life Cycle and Stakeholder Perspectives. Available at: http://prres.net/papers/zou_risks_in_construction_Projects.pdf.

Flanagan R, Norman G. Risk Management and Construction. Victoria: Blackwell Science Pty Ltd, Australia. 1993.

Akintoye AS, Mac Leod M.J. Risk Analysis and Management in Construction. Int J Proj Manage. 1997; 15(1): 31–38p.

Smith N.J. Appraisal, Risk and Uncertainty (Construction Management Series). London: Thomas Telford Ltd, UK. 2003.

Eweje J, Turner R, Müller R. Maximizing Strategic Value from Megaprojects: The Influence of Information-Feed on Decision-Making by the Project Manager. Int J Proj Manage. 2012; 30(6): 639–651p.

Mille R, Lessard D.R. The Strategic Management of Large Engineering Projects—Shaping Institutions, Risks and Governance. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. 2000.

Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Cambridge University Press. 2003.

PWC. Risk Management and Schedule Control on Mega-Projects. 2011. Available: http://www.pwc.com/us/en/ supply-chain management/assets/PwC_TL _Mega_Projects_SOQ.pdf. Accessed: 7th Jul 2014.

Project Management Body of Knowledge. 5th Edn. Available: http://quantfinancenotes.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/project-management-body-of-knowledge-pmbok-guide-5th-ed.pdf. Accessed: 7th Jul 2014.

Chen H, Hao G, Poon SW et al. Cost Risk Management in West Rail Project of Hong Kong. AACE International Transactions. 2004.

Shen L.Y. Project Risk Management in Hong Kong. Int J Proj Manage. 1997; 15(2): 101–105p.

Tam CM, Zeng SX, Deng Z.M. Identifying Elements of Poor Construction Safety Management in China. Safety Science. 2004; 42: 569–586p.

Uher TE Toakley A.R. Risk Management in the Conceptual Phase of a Project. Int J Proj Manage. 1999; 17(3): 161–169p.

Chapman R.J. The Controlling Influences on Effective Risk Identification and Assessment for Construction Design Management. Int J Proj Manage. 2001; 19: 147–160p.

Abdou O.A. Managing Construction Risks. Journal of Architectural Engineering. 1996; 2(1): 3–10p.

Esty B. C. Why Study Large Projects? An Introduction to Research on Project Finance. Europ. Finan. Manage. 2004; 10(2): 213–224p.

Kumaraswamy Mohan. Appropriate Appraisal and Apportionment of Megaproject Risks. J Prof Iss Eng Ed Pr. 1997; 123(2): 51–56p.

Akintoye A, Beck M, Hardcastle C, et al. Framework for Risk Assessment and Management of Private Finance Initiatives Projects. Glasgow: Glasgow Caledonian University. 2001. ISBN 1 903664 28 5.

Management of Project’s Risks and Uncertainties, Construction Industry Institute (CII), Publication 6–8. Oct 1989.

Kalayjian W. Third World Markets: Anticipating Risks. Civil Engineering. 2000; 70(5): 56–59p.

Bruzelius N, Flyvbjerg B, Rothengatter W. Big Decisions, Big Risks: Improving Accountability in Mega Projects. Transport Policy. 2002; 9(2): 143–154p.

Little R. G. The Emerging Role of Public-Private Partnerships in Megaproject Delivery. Public Works Management and Policy. 2011; 16(3): 240–249p.

Bing L, Akintoye A, Edwards P J, et al. The Allocation of Risk in PPP/PFI Construction Projects in the UK. Int J Proj Manage. 2005; 23(1): 25–35p.

Krane H P, Rolstadås A, Olsson N. O. E. Categorizing Risks in Seven Large Projects-Which Risks Do the Projects Focus On? Project Management Journal. 2010; 41(1): 81–86p.

Azpitarte Melero M. Análisis de riesgos, en project Finance (Iy, II). Harvard-Deusto Finanzas & Contabilidad. 2000, 2001.

Irimia-Diéguez AI, Oliver-Alfonso M.D. Estudio sobre la Financiación Privada de Infraestructuras. Escuela Andaluza de Economía. 2010.

Saaty T.L. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. New York: McGraw Hill. 1980.

Saaty T.L. Axiomatic Foundation of the Analytical Hierarchy Process. Manag. Sci. 1986; 32(7): 841–55p.

Saaty T. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. Eur J Oper Res. 1990; 48(1): 9–26p.

Hahn E.D. Decision Making with Uncertain Judgments: A Stochastic Formulation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Decis Sci. 2003; 34(3): 443–466p.

Zadeh LA. Fuzzy Sets. Inf Control. 1965; 8: 338–353p.

Van Laarhoven P J M, Pedrycz W. A Fuzzy Extension of Saaty’s Priority Theory. Fuzzy Set Syst. 1983; 11: 229–241p.

Iranmanesh H, S Nazari Shirkouhi, M.R. Skandari. 2008. Risk Evaluation of Information Technology Projects Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchal Process. International Journal of Computer and Information Science and Engineering. 2008; 2(1): 38–44p.

Buckley J. J. Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis. Fuzzy Set Syst. 1985; 17: 233–247p.

Chang D. Y. Applications of the Extent Analysis Method on Fuzzy AHP. Eur J Oper Res. 1996; 95: 649–655p.

Cheng C. H. Evaluating Naval Tactical Missile Systems by Fuzzy AHP Based on the Grade Value of Membership Function. Eur J Oper Res. 1997; 96: 343–350p.

Deng H. Multicriteria Analysis with Fuzzy Pairwise Comparison. Internat J Approx Reason. 1999; 21: 215–231p.

Leung L C, Cao D. On Consistency and Ranking of Alternatives in Fuzzy AHP. Eur J Oper Res. 2000; 124: 102–113p.

Mikhailov L. A Fuzzy Programming Method for Deriving Priorities in the Analytic Hierarchy Process. J Oper Res Soc. 2000; 51: 341–349p.

Kahraman C, Ertay T, Büyüközkan G. A fuzzy Optimization Model for QFD Planning Process Using Analytic Network Approach. Eur J Oper Res. 2006; 171: 390–411p.

Tolga E, Demircan M L, Kahraman C. Operating System Selection Using Fuzzy Replacement Analysis and Analytic Hierarchy Process. Int J Prod Econ. 2005; 97: 89–117p.

Liou TS, M.J.J. Wang. Ranking Fuzzy Numbers with Integral Value. Fuzzy Set Syst. 1992; 50(3): 247–255p.

Triantaphyllou E. Multi-Criteria Decision Making Methods: A Comparative Study. Applied Optimization. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht. 2000; 44.

David N Sillars, PE Matt Hallowell, Jean Pol Armijos. Development of a Decision Model for Selection of Appropriate Timely Delivery Techniques for Highway Projects. 2009. Final Report, SPR 646. Available at: http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/td/tp_res/docs/reports/2009/del_tech_hwy.pdf. Accessed: 12 Jul, 2014, at 4:00 pm.

Germanischer Lloyd. Hazard Identification Studies (HAZID), Germanischer Lloyd Service/Product Description. Available at: http://www. germanlloyd.org/pdf/Hazard_Identification_Studies.pdf. 2008.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.3759/ttea.v2i1.2798

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.